Today is Saturday April 12th, 2025 no more than a few days since Liberation Day was set into action by President Donald Trump. Let’s take a look at a few broader macro level key asset indices, and explain what each of them measures:
Equities (Stocks)
Dow Jones Industrial Average: A price-weighted index tracking 30 U.S. blue-chip stocks.
S&P 500: A market-cap-weighted index of 500 large U.S. companies.
Nasdaq Composite: A market-cap-weighted index of over 3,000 companies, particularly tech-heavy.
FTSE 100: A UK stock market index of the 100 largest companies listed on the London Stock Exchange.
Nikkei 225: A Japanese stock market index of 225 companies listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange.
—
Fixed Income (Bonds)
Bloomberg US Aggregate Bond Index: A broad measure of the U.S. taxable bond market.
Bloomberg Global Aggregate Index: A global benchmark for investment-grade fixed-income debt.
Multi-Asset Indices
Bloomberg Global EQ:FI 60:40 Index: Tracks a 60/40 mix of equities and fixed income.
—
Commodities
Bloomberg Commodity Index: A broad measure of commodity prices.
Digital Assets:
CoinDesk 20: Tracks the performance of the top 20 digital assets.
CoinDesk 100: Provides a benchmark of the broader digital asset universe.
—
Almost every one of these indices is getting crushed right now, heck even the US dollar is being pummeled by macro economic factors. Typically, during uncertain times the majority of people flock to bonds, treasuries, and commodities but even these are selling off at alarming rates. As US equity prices are being pushed downwards, yields are being pushed up, and even the US dollar is losing its value. Meanwhile, international markets are experiencing something much different. Take for example, Germany’s equity market, the DAX has shown significant outperformance to its European peers which are also doing quite well - Swiss Francs are soaring, the Euro is gaining, even the Yen is fairly stable at the moment.
While the US upholds its status as the major global economy and richest country in the world, boasting a GDP of over $30.34 trillion as of Feb 26th, 2025, I’m here to play devils advocate and shed light on the idea that while it may look like this on paper we MAY be experiencing the collapse of Western Civilization and more specifically America being the worlds strongest superpower, economically, technologically, and militarily. This is very similar to the fall of Roman Empire. Gone are the days when countries rely on the US for defense (ie NATO), for humanitarian aid (ie Ukraine), for fair trade (ie China), and even financial stability. As we observe international markets driving upwards, people within the US are seeking alternative markets as safe havens to what’s unraveling throughout the geopolitical landscape? Look at the US dollar's decline, which is inherently driven by erratic trade policies and a market where its own nation state doesn’t believe that it has a stable or clear economic plan.
We face an interesting dilemma now where it seems as if the Trump administration assumed China would back down immediately, but as it turns out they have wholly underestimated China’s strength and resilience. It appears that the Trump administration believed negotiating with countries would be an easy task, but how does a small group of some of the most qualified minds control the 10Yr US Treasuries, the US dollar, the equity market, labor market, broader US economy, company wide earnings, and most importantly the psychological response of humans in such an uncertain environment? Short answer, they can’t… at least I don’t believe they can and if they somehow do figure a way out of this mess, a quantum computer should take notes and create a framework for this brilliant strategy and replicate it.
So how does all of this tie into Crypto? You didn’t think I was going to spend this entire blog post going on and on about doomsday did you?
In the US, blockchain & crypto is often seen as a side hustle (or to boomers they just think you’re an idiot) but in places like Argentina, Lebanon, Nigeria, cryptocurrency is survival. Let’s discuss the hidden side to this industry that most people will never understand…
In Argentina, inflation is over 200% and its citizens are bum rushing to convert pesos into USDT the moment they get paid. The important thing to understand is that they aren’t doing this to invest, but merely to protect what they have earned.
In Lebanon? Their banking system froze as millions lost access to their savings accounts they spent their entire lives building. The currency in Lebanon was devalued by over 98% between January 2023 and March 2024, with an annual inflation rate of 221% in 2023. I can go into the downstream effect this has on its citizens but we’d be here all day, TLDR public services have collapsed since then leading to mass famine and chaos while the Western media has described this as one of the most devastating and worst financial recessions since the 19th century.
How about Nigeria? Here the corruption, bank limits, and currency instability push people towards the ease of P2P crypto markets. They even go as far as trading stablecoins on WhatsApp, in doing so it’s much faster, safer and more reliable than their own banking system.
All of this to say, the value that crypto brings varies from country to country based on their economic environment. “This isn’t about flipping coins or chasing pumps. It’s about owning money that can’t be taken away.” -@cryptoentrepreneur
To unstable economies, crypto isn’t just a speculative play it’s a shield, and a way to store value to quite simply survive in a system that's meant to keep you right where you are. Traditional systems often fail its people when they need them the most, however crypto provides them with an option, a lifeline. Take DeFi for example, I once was in a position with poor credit as banks and financial institutions here in the US denied my ability to receive any form of assistance or personal loan in order to stay afloat. So what did I do? I took what wealth I had left, bought a sh*tload of Ethereum, supplied it to the AAVE’s decentralized protocol which facilitates crypto lending and borrowing through a P2P system, and began borrowing money in the form of stablecoins. I say this to remind you that traditional systems will fail you in order to protect themselves when the broader economy and their reputation is at risk. You must take matters into your own hands. Take the financial crisis in 2008, did Wall Street look after all of you when it sold you shares that they knew were completely useless? They did this to save themselves, as their projections and analytics informed them far ahead of time on exactly what was knocking on our doorstep. The world is a ruthless and unforgiving place and this is why one must operate within the mindset of survival of the fittest. Shout out Mobb Deep.
The media might call crypto risky, they may even convince some of the most influential people in the world like Jamie Dimon to chastise it while his own bank secretly buys crypto and has their own $JPM stablecoin. But let me ask you this, what’s riskier... a bit of volatility in crypto or 200% inflation, corrupt banking systems and a frozen bank account?
On April 8, 2025 Anthonyded wrote:
<a href=https://cryptolake.online/crypto3>Institutional investment in crypto</a>
On April 8, 2025 Anthonyded wrote:
<a href=https://cryptolake.online/crypto3>Cryptocurrency price analysis</a>